Business wants Eskom tariff hike proposals rejected because it would cost jobs and reduce production, writes Claire Bisseker
04 March 2019 - 05:03The SA economy’s full-year performance will be revealed on Tuesday when StatsSA publishes the remaining GDP data for 2018 but, as important, will be the outcome of the energy regulator’s multi-year electricity tariff decision on Thursday.
“There is even greater forecast risk for the fourth-quarter GDP [number] given that this is when StatsSA implements substantial data revisions,” explains Citi Bank economist Gina Schoeman. Though worse than the third quarter, this would still be a “reasonably strong” result for SA, he says. “We think that conditions will improve this year due to easing inflation, improved confidence and the passing of disruptions in the agricultural sector.”
For though mining output fell by 4.8% year-on-year in December and manufacturing output was barely positive, the mining sector actually performed slightly better over the quarter than it did previously, while the slowdown in manufacturing and retail was modest, notes Ashbourne. Nevertheless, she is decidedly more bullish than most, forecasting fourth-quarter GDP growth of 2.2% quarter-over-quarter , partly on firmer consumer spending and an uptick on bank lending.
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