The U.S. factory sector missed the memo that a recession is supposedly almost upon us due to the rapid rise in interest rates this year.
Orders at American factories for durable goods—those expected to last three years or longer—soared one percent in October, twice what economists had penciled in for the month and more than three times the downwardly revised 0.3 percent growth in the prior month.
Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a proxy for business investment, rose 0.7 percent, stronger than the 0.2 percent growth expected. Last month, orders for these core capital goods fell by 0.8 percent. Economists had seen this as being flat with last month. Orders for durable goods are considered an economic bellwether, rising as the economy expands and falling when it contracts. Many economists expected meager growth or even a contraction at the end of 2022 but most indications show the economy outperforming the forecasts. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW measure shows economic data received so far indicating a 4.2 percent rate of growth in the fourth quarter, far above the consensus forecast for less than one percent.
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