Opinion: Donald Trump’s 2024 primary strategy, explained
Against all odds, former President Donald Trump appears well-positioned to clinch the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. He holds a commanding lead over a growing primary field with seven months until the ‘first in the nation’ Iowa caucus, despite facing a slew of legal scandals that would debilitate any other politician.
Though this strategy is largely devoid of actual policy, it has been effective thus far: Trump has consolidated the support of the majority of Republican primary voters nationally, doubling his lead over DeSantis, per RealClearPolitics’of primary polls. Bearing in mind that national data is best viewed as a general gauge, the latest polls in the first four primary states also find Trump with at least a 20-point lead.
Indeed, Trump’s martyrdom narrative will only become more entrenched if he is indicted in the special counsel’s probe, either for mishandling classified documents or for attempting to stay in power after losing the 2020 election. This is especially likely if the concurrent federal probes into President Biden’s potential mishandling of classified documents and Hunter Biden’s alleged influence peddling – among other investigations into the First Son – fail to result in charges.
Throughout his political career, Trump has proven himself a virtuoso at playing both the winner and the victim, and this is no exception. As Rich Lowry recentlyfor POLITICO, this role has allowed Trump to construct “an impenetrable political forcefield” with Republican voters – each success he experiences proves that he is on top, while any setback validates his victimhood and shows that his political enemies are threatened by his strength.
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