.andrew_leach: Under the Alberta UCP leader's plan, Trudeau would have a hard time approving the Trans Mountain project. In fact, so would Andrew Scheer.
Andrew Leach is an associate professor at the University of Alberta School of Business. In 2015, he chaired Alberta’s Climate Advisory Panel which recommended some of the policies now in place in Alberta.
Is there any way Trudeau can approve the pipeline if Kenney moves ahead with his promises on emissions policies? Not if he wants a shred of credibility on the climate change file. Kenney has pledged a rollback of carbon pricing in Alberta, a lawsuit challenging federal authority to regulate provincial emissions, a removal of the oil sands emissions cap and a halt to the phase out of Alberta coal-fired electricity. That alone will make it very difficult for Trudeau to approve the pipeline.
Canada’s 2018 Emissions Projections forecast emissions of 701 Mt by 2030, well-above our targets of 512Mt. That 701Mt includes 275Mt from Ontario, 160Mt from Alberta and 71Mt from Saskatchewan—506Mt combined from three provinces. Without more stringent policies in these provinces, and especially in Alberta, we won’t meet our targets.
It seems unlikely that Scheer will run on the prospect of unregulated emissions from ever-expanding oil sands in areas of the country that care more about climate change than pipelines. It’s more likely he’ll campaign on a national version of Ford’s ‘polluters not commuters’ approach, and a promise akin to Stephen Harper’s earlier commitments to aim stringent federal policies at Alberta’s oil sands. Otherwise, any promises he makes on emissions reductions will not be credible.
Kenney and many other conservatives have suggested there are things Trudeau could have done to get the process moving more quickly on Trans Mountain, perhaps circumventing the duty to adequately consult with First Nations and the objections of a B.C. premier opposed to the pipeline.
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