Does the decline in oil prices signal a coming global recession? - CanadianInvestor CanadiansInvest
The driver of this bearish sentiment has been the concern of a possible recession and an overly hawkish response by the Federal Reserve
Fears of a global recession helped bring prices down, leading some to speculate that crude markets could be in for some real battering. With central banks – including the United States Federal Reserve – hiking interest rates to tame inflation, investors seemed to already be reacting to the consequences of such a slowdown.
But crude oil supplies continue to be tight. Russia’s war on Ukraine and its implications on global crude supply haunt the markets. And questions about Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports are rising. On Tuesday, a Russian court ordered a 30-day stoppage of the CPC Terminal, through which more than 30 million barrels of mostly Kazakh crude gets exported each month.
JPM analysts say “it is likely that the Russian government could retaliate by cutting output to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s sideBloomberg reports that the combined monthly exports of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Libya, the North Sea and West – all major European crude suppliers – declined by 1.04 million bpd in June. In a market facing tight supply, a decline is a cause of concern.
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