The macro environment is, for the first time since this rate hiking cycle begun, characterized by sharp divergences between asset classes, and also across different readings of the business cycle.
... [+]
in New York City. Despite a government debt buyout plan, the Dow continued to fall today, closing more than 500 points down. For instance, many lead indicators have dropped precipitously in the past two months to levels typically associated with a recession, though within those indicators, the service sector appears far more healthy than the manufacturing one. At the same time, consumer centric indicators like retail sales have been strong, and lagging economic indicators like employment are very strong across the Western economies.
Meanwhile, both equities and the credit markets have rallied in recent weeks, with signs of complacency creeping in .
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