Coal's man in the Senate just negotiated some end-of-life care for coal.
, the REPEAT Project at Princeton’s Zero Lab says that the IRA would “build on demonstration funding in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to make carbon capture a viable economic option,” and projects that the bill would lead more coal plants to adopt it in the years to come. .
, the provision provided a big enough subsidy that some plants might retrofit. “What Sen. Manchin has done is craft provisions that give coal a chance to stay online,” he told me. The climate analysts at the Rhodium Group, who shared with me some unpublished numbers from an upcoming modeling, have a more pessimistic outlook . They expect that, even without the IRA, coal power capacity would shrink from 203 gigawatts today to as low as 93 gigawatts by 2030.
That’s partly because the bill makes renewable options so cheap, but also because Rhodium’s experts don’t think the IRA will lead to many additional coal plants adopting carbon capture beyond those that would without the IRA. “It just happens that coal is generally the most expensive electric- sector application of carbon capture,” John Larsen, who heads Rhodium’s US
climate policy research team, told me. Even with generous tax credits, the tech won’t be worth it compared to other clean alternatives.
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