The last time this pattern formed, in June 2018, the rand weakened as much as 12% in the subsequent three months
The rand has strengthened about 3.7% against the dollar since the beginning of April, the best performance out of 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, amid the Federal Reserve’s dovish turn and signs of an economic revival in China, the country’s biggest trading partner.But the South African currency’s fate may depend on the outcome of general elections on May 8, which are seen as a referendum of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform programme.
While most opinion polls predict a solid win for Ramaphosa’s ruling ANC, he may find its hard to implement measures to boost growth, rescue state-owned companies and root out corruption. That said, a death cross and its opposite, a golden cross, are not always an accurate predictor of future moves. The rand formed a golden cross against the dollar in February, then weakened 5.3% in the subsequent month.
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