If nothing is done, Africa is forecast to have as many as 3.3m deaths and 1.2bn infections by the end of 2020, writes dambisamoyo for The Economist
THE PANDEMIC’S scale and virulence means it is destroying economies as much as it is claiming lives. Poor countries look as if they will suffer the worst, in particular those in Africa, home to the most impoverished. But the world need not be passive in the face of the calamity. A modern “Marshall Plan” for Africa, modelled after the big aid package that America provided European countries after the second world war, could prevent a humanitarian tragedy and pay dividends for generations.
First, morality. If nothing is done, Africa is forecast to have as many as 1.2bn infections and 3.3m deaths by the end of 2020, according to the UN Economic Commission for Africa. Second, migration. Aid may prevent a surge in disorderly or illegal migration, which is already plaguing Europe. If Africa’s health infrastructure and economic foundations are not stabilised, the pandemic will almost certainly unleash an exodus of refugees.
That is the lesson of the original Marshall Plan. From 1948 to 1952 America provided loans, grants and technical assistance to 16 European countries. The idea was to reconstruct cities, industries and infrastructure damaged during the war; to foster trade between Europe and America; and, crucially, to stem the spread of communism. The price tag was roughly $13bn, or around $135bn in today’s money.
In the spirit of the stimulus approach used in Hong Kong and in America , donor countries should consider direct cash payments to African households. The beauty of a direct-transfer approach is that it mitigates the risk of funds being illicitly diverted, as billions in aid have been before, despite all the “conditionalities” that are regularly imposed to prevent this. A payment infrastructure already exists. According to the World Bank, African citizens received $46bn in remittances in 2018.
To some a Marshall Plan for Africa might appear fanciful and even seem a political non-starter, given the huge debts from stimulus packages and the nationalist political forces facing many Western governments. However, the risks of inaction are great, too: entrenching Africa’s poverty, fanning mass migration, fomenting domestic unrest and possibly terrorism, and pushing the continent closer to China. The economic harm of doing nothing may be costlier than intervening.
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