Cyclone Mocha, called an extremely severe cyclonic storm by the India Meteorological Department, rapidly intensified over the past day and is now in the final stretch before careening into the Asian continent.
An atmospheric wave near China helping steer it northward, rather than weakening it markedly, appears to be helping enhance Mocha’s outflow, which can keep intensification going despite what might often be disruptive wind shear.
“Conditions are favorable for further intensification, with low vertical wind shear, warm [sea surface temperatures] and strong poleward outflow,”The landfall location is expected to be near or north of Sittwe, Myanmar. It could be as far north as near the Bangladesh border a few dozen miles past the city.
JTWC forecast calls for Mocha to reach peak intensity about 12 hours prior to landfall, with some minor weakening as it reaches shore Sunday afternoon local time. Their official landfall intensity is 130 mph sustained.There remains some disagreement as to its landfall intensity. The storm is likely to come ashore as a major hurricane equivalent of Category 3 or higher. It could reach shore as a Category 4 or higher.
Massive waves — currently up to 45 feet high near the center but subdued by about half at landfall — accompany a storm surge of 2 to 4 meters above normal water height, with locally higher possible. The worst surge will occur near and south of the landfall point as onshore winds pile up the water.surge forecast is 2.5-3m, 0.5m higher than yesterday's, but is likely too low, considering the 12Z Saturday JTWC intensity estimate is 150 mph--just 10 mph below Cat 5.
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