MLB predictions, picks, and odds for Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners on 4-14. MLB best bets and free picks.
The Mariners find themselves in a slide and will look to a struggling Luis Castillo to help turn things around. Our MLB picks believe Castillo isn't as bad as his numbers suggest and we think he'll tame Chicago this afternoon.
One thing to watch with Castillo is the slight velocity dip we’ve seen in his first couple of starts. After averaging 97.1 mph on his fastball in 2022 and 96.4 mph in 2023, he’s down to 95.4 this season. It’s still early in the season and sometimes velocity dips are seen to start the year before starting pitchers are fully ramped up and stretched out.
He faces a soft-hitting Seattle lineup that has struggled with a 78 wRC+ and a .269 wOBA . Those numbers get even worse when you isolate for right-handed pitching, against whom they’ve mustered league-worst figures in both wRC+ wRC+ and wOBA . On the flip side, Assad isn’t known as a strikeout pitcher but has a healthy 27.9% K-rate so far this year and faces a Seattle lineup with a brutal 31.5% K-rate against righties. Not only is that the worst K-rate in the MLB, it’s three full percentage points worse than the next-closest ball club . Seattle is 5-9-1 O/U this season and both of the first two games of this series went Under the total
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