André Dragosch is head of research at ETC Group.
Today’s newsletter marks my one-year anniversary of curating the Crypto for Advisor newsletter. Time flies when you are having fun, and it’s hard to believe I have 52 issues under my belt. Thanks to CoinDesk and particularly Kim Klemballa for giving me this opportunity along with all of our valued newsletter contributors who spend their time building this industry as your contributions are invaluable.
Over the past three months, the annualized volatility of bitcoin and ether has been around 45% to 50%, respectively, while the volatility of the S&P 500 was around 15%. Although these types of scenarios have become increasingly likely over the past few years, there remains uncertainty around these questions.The history of Amazon holds important lessons in this regard. In the late 1990s, most Wall Street analysts thought “selling books online” was a silly idea. There was a lot of uncertainty about whether online retailing and the internet in general would eventually become mainstream.
While bitcoin’s volatility was around 200% during the first epoch – the roughly four-year timespan between the cryptocurrency's pre-programmed"halvings" of miner rewards – until 2012, it has decreased to only 45% more recently. Similar observations can be made regarding ether.
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