The same storm system that delivered flash flooding and prolific mountain snows to California this week is sweeping east, bringing an assortment of hazardous weather across the Lower 48.
Severe weather is expected on the warm side of the low-pressure system, where Gulf of Mexico moisture and mildness are present. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday afternoon and evening says there is an “enhanced risk,” level 3 out of 5, for an area around Dallas-Fort Worth and stretching into southern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas. Hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are all expected.
That does a few things. It draws warm, moist air from the Gulf northward and drapes it across the southern Plains. That provides CAPE, or convective available potential energy, to juice up the atmosphere and fuel thunderstorms. The stronger the low, the farther north moisture can surge, and the more instability, or fuel, will build.
The low is also sucking cold air southward in its wake. The resulting clash of the air masses along a cold front that’s moving to the southeast will trigger severe weather. The cold air, meanwhile, is turning precipitation into snow north and west of the low-pressure center.A level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk of severe weather has been drawn for south-central Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. Nearly 8 million people are in the enhanced zone, including residents of Dallas and Fort Worth.
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