Many of the key epidemiological numbers for the Covid19 coronavirus are still uncertain. Adele Baleta takes us through some of the best estimates out there.
A health worker checks a woman's temperature during a door-to-door testing in an attempt to contain the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak, in Umlazi township near Durban. Picture: Rogan Ward/ReutersMany of the key epidemiological numbers for the Covid-19 coronavirus are still uncertain. Adele Baleta takes us through some of the best estimates out there
The results of Imperial College London modelling published last month, indicated that more than 500 000 people may die from Covid-19 in the UK, and more than 2.2 million in the US if no action was taken. The numbers are uncertain and there is a lot of debate about whether mortality estimates are too high or too low. So, what is the right number? The right answers, however, are not what epidemiological models are for.
Model makers have to work with the data they have. A novel virus such as Sars-CoV-2 has a lot of unknowns, he said. Like the World Health Organisation , many countries are currently relying on China’s data where their epidemic has matured. More data is coming from Italy, France and Spain which have recorded most deaths but this is likely to be outstripped by the US which has the highest number of infections.
For us, the hosts, the incubation period is from the time when we are exposed to the pathogen to the time the virus becomes detectable in the body even if we do not have any symptoms. If after 14 days the virus is not detected in the body with testing “it’s taken that even if you were exposed to the virus, you were not infected”, said Mphahlele. He said there is a big open question that makes the quarantine recommendations trickier than usual.
Mphahlele added that from the onset of symptoms to death can take up to eight weeks depending on the severity of the disease. “Death comes quicker depending on underlying illness,” he said.The series interval The most widely quoted mortality measure is the case fatality rate . The CFR changes as new data come in. There is also a high degree of variability from country to country.
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