Could the 0.8-per-cent drop of the TSX Composite Index have anything to do with the Canadian men’s team getting trounced on a soccer pitch in Qatar?
Over the past 20 years, economists have debated the impact of major sporting events on stock market returns. Does the agony and ecstasy of sports fans affect investment decisions? For economists who believe that markets are moved by emotions and narratives as much as by rational analysis, World Cup soccer provides an ideal case study.
Elimination from the World Cup, the most important tournament of all, had an even more pronounced effect, lowering next-day stock market returns by 49 basis points. On the flip side, the researchers found no evidence that markets responded positively to wins. Because the semi-conductor manufacturer is listed on both the Paris stock exchange and the Milan stock exchange, Mr. Ehrmann and his co-author, David-Jan Jansen, were able to compare minute-by-minute price data on each exchange during matches by the French and Italian teams. They looked at two elimination matches in particular: Italy’s 3-2 loss to Slovakia, and France’s 2-1 loss to South Africa.
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