Analysis - A shifting political calculus by sponsors of the M23 rebel group risk triggering another war in the Great Lakes Region, underscoring the importance of African mediators and global partners acting quickly to stem the fighting.
A shifting political calculus by sponsors of the M23 rebel group risk triggering another war in the Great Lakes Region, underscoring the importance of Africa n mediators and global partners acting quickly to stem the fighting.
Congolese President Félix is under enormous pressure to respond to the aggression popularly believed to be driven by Rwanda and Uganda. Hundreds of angry protesters in Kinshasa are demanding the government take immediate and decisive action to reclaim the lost territory. Some have set off fires in front of Western embassies out of frustration over the international community’s failure to stop the violence. Others are calling for weapons so they can join the fight in the east.
Meanwhile, a third of Yoweri Museveni’s National Resistance Army and Movement during Uganda’s civil war was composed of Rwandan immigrants and refugees, as well as Ugandan Banyarwanda. They rose to the top of Uganda’s security apparatus and would later play a central role in the formation of the largely Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Army that fought against the Hutu-led forces perpetuating genocide in Rwanda in 1994. Its leadership would go on to form the basis of Rwanda’s present government.
Back in 2012, M23 withdrew in the face of massive African and international pressure. This concerted political, diplomatic, and military leverage. The diplomatic environment this time around also appears to be different. Major international partners are distracted and there is a lack of coordination among them and regional countries. The military dynamics on the ground have also changed. “The main actors involved do not seem to be deterred by admonitions by major global powers.
Bukavu is already the epicenter of clashes between Burundian rebel groups and the Burundian military. The Ruzizi Plain, which faces Burundi’s commercial capital, Bujumbura, is also a focus of these tensions. The potential that the escalation of fighting in the Kivus triggers a wider regional conflict, therefore, is high.
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