There has been a certain buzz around the baht, but the attention could be short lived if the Thai government fails to navigate deeper structural problems, says a researcher.
In New York, acquaintances in finance talk of bets on the baht’s rise. Investor and Financial Times contributing editor Ruchir Sharma tapped this sentiment with enthusiastic praise for Thailand’s currency in an essay in February.and a larger role for the baht in international finance?
While the country saw stronger growth in the 2000s, its catch-up record is mediocre. At a relative peak in 1996, Thai gross domestic product was about 2.3 per cent of US GDP . In 2021, it was 2.2 per cent . It is likely to fall to 2.1 per cent or lower in 2022 and 2023. For the baht to durably strengthen, Thailand’s government must address pressing economic and societal challenges. Thailand now faces an ageing population and labour shortages, particularly in theThe education system inspires little public confidence. Corruption and unreliable law and regulatory enforcement remain deterrents to efficient private investment.
Unless the surveys greatly underestimate any rise in informal earnings, such modest wage gains are outweighed by the baht’s depreciation in the last year and a half, ranging from about 12 to 20 per cent of the baht’s value versus the US dollar.
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