Indonesia aspires to be a great regional power and its attempt to play peacemaker in the Myanmar crisis is an early test of how it might fare, says this international relations lecturer.
. As a scholar of international relations and Indonesian foreign policy, I see the nation’s handling of the Myanmar crisis as an early test of how Indonesia could fare as the region’s great power.The civil war between the military and the anti-military groups in Myanmar has claimed thousands of lives. It followedthat returned the country to military rule, with the junta embarking on a brutal crackdown of the opposition.
But efforts to influence the behaviour of another state through discreet negotiations or actions have clearly not yet succeeded. It doesn’t bode well for Indonesia’s desire to be a stabilising factor in the region. Theoretically, the high cost of war should encourage combatants to the negotiating table - the idea being that when coffers dry up and civilian suffering mounts, peace becomes a more attractive option. Yet the worsening violence on the ground suggests that both sides are absorbing the costs.
Meanwhile, through the BURMA Act - incorporated into the National Defense Authorization Act and signed by President Joe Biden in December 2022 - the US pledged to provide nonlethal assistance, such as medical supplies, radar equipment and armored military vehicles, to pro-democratic forces in Burma. Although Indonesia and the rest of ASEAN member states decided not to invite the representative of the junta to attend this year’s summit, they are unlikely to suspend its ASEAN membership out of concern for destabilising the region further.
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