Some Asian populations are ageing and shrinking, others are projected to grow and reap a demographic dividend. These differences could draw the region closer together, says this professor.
Japan continued to have the highest median age in the world in 2021 at 48.4, and its neighbours are close behind. In contrast, the majority of the world’s population lives in poor countries with young median ages - including several Indo-Pacific states such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.Asia’s varied demographic transitions are creating surprising new connections.
South Korea is an example of the trends in other Northeast Asian economies — including Japan, Taiwan, China and Russia as well as North Korea to a lesser extent — where populations are rapidly ageing and have begun to shrink in total size. Vietnam is an example of a group of regional states that are barely managing to maintain a stable population without immigration or rapid ageing, while also experiencing numerous internal demographic shifts. The population shift from rural to urban areas is a driver for an urban labour market that fuels Vietnam’s export-driven growth.
This group faces very different demographics-related challenges more in line with population-growth fears commonly heard in the 20th century, such as concerns about having too many mouths to feed and not enough employment options, and the potential resulting political instability. In the 21st century, 98 per cent of population growth will be in less-developed countries and the world population is expected to peak before the century’s end.
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