None of the Middle East’s big powers wants further conflict but it could happen nonetheless, says the Financial Times' Gideon Rachman.
Smoke and dust rise following an Israeli air strike in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip on Oct 30, 2023, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. LONDON: Historians are fascinated by the outbreak of the first world war.
So how could escalation play out? One indication came last week, when the US bombed Iran-backed militias in Syria. Washington said that it was responding to attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, carried out by Iranian proxies. If those attacks continue, and American troops are killed, the next US response will be even fiercer., the Iran-backed militant group based in Lebanon, is crucial.
The US Navy would attempt to reopen the strait. But that might lead Iran and its proxies to hit back. The US has troops and facilities all over the region that could be targeted - including in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Syria and Iraq.One Iran-backed force that the Americans are watching with particular concern are the Houthis in Yemen - who were targeted in a brutal war with Saudi Arabia. Houthi forces fired rockets towards Israel last week.
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