What happens in Ukraine during 2023 will be crucial - it will reveal whether victory for either side is possible, or whether a “frozen” conflict is more likely, says this researcher.
to stand up to bullies really is.
And while the bitter infighting between the armed forces and paramilitary organisation the Wagner Group seems to have been settled for the moment, the fact that it was conducted so publicly suggests Putin no longer enjoys the same iron control amongst Russia’s leaders that he once did.Commentary: Would Putin really be willing to expand the war beyond Ukraine as retaliation for Western tanks?
By using mobilised Russians as cannon fodder, and having emptied much of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund in 2022 to blunt damage to its economy, Putin has created dual pressures on Russian society.Second, sanctions are about to bite much harder. And instead of being able to direct mobilisation campaigns at Russia’s marginalised and minority groups, affluent and influential areas like Moscow and St Petersburg will for the first time find their livelihoods affected by the war in 2023.
But just like prohibition-era Baptists and bootleggers, it will continue trying to exert pressure by seeking to unite seemingly disparate groups, such as the anti-war campaigns which have brought together the anti-globalist Far Left with the conspiracy theory-laden Far Right.The centre of NATO gravity will likely continue to shift further east.
Policy coordination between Warsaw and Washington has increased as well, especially on stationing NATO systems, personnel, and providing training for Ukrainian forces - including US President Joe Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday to announce aPutin set for major Ukraine war speech after Biden walks streets of Kyiv
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