Where do recent attacks leave Hezbollah as it weighs a response? The consequences of a full-scale war would be devastating for all, says this Professor of History and Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame.
Smoke rises from Israel i shelling on villages in the Nabatiyeh district, seen from the southern town of Marjayoun, Lebanon , Sep 23, 2024. NOTRE DAME, Indiana: For almost a year, Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in increasingly provocative cross-border skirmishes as onlookers warn that this escalating war of attrition could land the region in all-out conflict.
All parties surely know the likely destructive consequences of such an eventuality for themselves: Israel has the military power to devastate Beirut and other parts of Lebanon as it did in Gaza, while even a weakened Hezbollah could fire thousands of missiles at Israeli strategic sites, from the airport to central Tel Aviv, water supply lines and electricity hubs, and offshore gas rigs.
The country’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, described a “new phase” in the war after the coordinated attacks on Hezbollah targets, adding that the “centre of gravity” in the war was moving north into Lebanon. The Israeli government has added the “return of the residents of the north securely to their homes” as an additional war goal.
The killing of Aqil two days later was another signal that the Israeli government had now decided to try to change the rules of this risky game of reprisals and counter-reprisals. It is clear that rather than the uneasy status quo that defined this war of attrition for nearly a year, Israel’s intent is now to pressure Hezbollah to concede.Nasrallah delivered a gloomy and defiant speech in the aftermath of the pager attack.
Rather, critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggest that he is mainly motivated by his own political survival and the retention of power as the head of state, tying Israel’s interests to his own.
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