College Football Playoff projections after Week 5: Ranking the chances for each contender

The group of contenders for the College Football Playoff is starting to shrink. Austin Mock's projection model ranks the chances for each.

The first full month of the college football season is in the books and the number of contenders is starting to get trimmed up. There are still a lot of teams with a respectable chance to make it to the College Football Playoff and this weekend’s games should make things a bit clearer.

My projection model gives 12 teams more than a 1 percent chance to win the national title and 16 teams a more than 1 percent chance of making the CFP. Two teams, thehad a 1.7 percent chance of making the CFP before going to Austin, but those chances have evaporated with a lopsided loss.Here’s how the model works: I have developed a season simulator that produces odds for winning the national title, making the College Football Playoff, and winning conference and division titles.

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