Climate change may lead to staggering levels of migration

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Climate change may lead to staggering levels of migration
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  • 📰 TheEconomist
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In a 4°C-warmer world, billions of people would move to cooler places such as Canada, northern Europe and Russia, predicts Gaia Vince in “Nomad Century”

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThe most striking pages of “Nomad Century” are the maps. Ms Vince shows the areas that would be uninhabitable in a 4°C-warmer world. A wide strip around the equator, home to some 3.5bn people, becomes lethally hot. Most places south of Britain and north of Patagonia become so grim that few would want to live there. Billions of people, Ms Vince predicts, would move to cooler climes such as Canada, northern Europe and Russia.

However, her economic and political analysis is cursory and unconvincing. She starts by observing, correctly, that migration tends to make the world richer, especially when people move from poor and badly governed countries to wealthy, well-run ones. Canada, northern Europe and New Zealand are exceptionally well-run, and people who move there from Africa or South Asia have prospered mightily and integrated well in the past. Future migrants will certainly boost theof the places they move to.

This patchy record has been achieved in an era when migrant flows have been a tiny fraction of what Ms Vince envisages. Today, perhaps 3.5% of people live outside their country of birth. In a four-degree world a vastly larger throng would head for a smaller number of destinations. The voters of northern Europe could be swiftly and dramatically outnumbered in their homelands by people from Africa, the Middle East and other culturally distant places with illiberal traditions.

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TheEconomist /  🏆 6. in UK

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