The Conservatives won the seat in 2019 with 72 of the vote.
Clacton is the only parliamentary constituency that has ever been won at a general election by a party associated with Nigel Farage – though a seat in the House of Commons has so far eluded the man himself.
Mr Farage was the leader of Ukip at the time and stood as a candidate in 2015 in Thanet South, finishing in second place on 32% of the vote, behind the Tories on 38%. Mr Carswell did not stand at the 2017 election – he had resigned from Ukip a few months beforehand and finished his term in Parliament as an independent.
This means there is no data for how Reform might have fared in Clacton at the last general election, and therefore no data that could be used to measure how well the party would need to perform at this year’s General Election to win the constituency from the Tories – for example, what size of swing would be required and where the seat would rank on the party’s list of targets.
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