The core problem in China’s latest approach to Covid-19 is the same as with most half-measures: that is, they only serve to make the problem worse
. Additionally, this increase in cases will lead to more deaths, as China also does not have an effective post-infection anti-viral, and it still refuses to buy such supplies from foreign suppliers, again despite ongoing offers from several Western countries to make such anti-virals and post-infection treatments available to China.
The clean sweep of support that President Xi secured at the recent 20th Party Congress to be re-elected as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party for a third term almost certainly means that China’s approach to Covid-19 will not change meaningfully any time soon.
In terms of specific negative ramifications for China’s economic growth, the key Purchasing Managers’ Index for factory activity fell unexpectedly in October, to 49.2, a decrease of 0.9 from the previous month, and indicative of an outright contraction. In line with this, China’s crude oil imports for the first three quarters of the year fell 4.3 percent year on year to mark the first annual decline for the period since at least 2014.
A significant fall in oil prices may not be what oil producing companies want but it is certainly what the global economy needs, and particularly the economies of developed countries. Since the end of the third quarter of last year, global investors across all asset classes, including most notably commodities, have been eyeing a toxic combination of ballooning inflation powered largely by soaring energy costs, and repeated sharp increases in interest rates to combat this trend.
Why did this toxic inflation-interest rate-growth cocktail begin around the end of the third quarter of last year? It is principally because the end of September saw the public release of the first indications that Russia had specific plans for a full invasion of Ukraine. These were reports from several sources, based around theof highly unusual Russian military movements on the Ukraine border after the conclusion of the joint Russia-Belarus military exercises that had taken place.
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