We are not that dependent on the Chinese market, which puts us in a good position to build trade links with the nation's rivals
What I had not envisaged was the political clout of the research. There is now the Brics summit , a Brics development bank, now renamed the New Development Bank, the extension of membership taking place next year, and so on.. It is reasonable for the emerging and frontier economies to have their voice heard and their growing importance recognised. But if the world does split into two rival blocs – I very much hope it won’t – then those emerging nations will suffer the most.
My feeling is that the world has a difficult decade to get through, but if it can do so with reasonable harmony, it will be much easier in the 2030s. Once China recognises that it will not be number one, if that is indeed the case, then it can switch attention to providing a better life for these people. In that sense, I am encouraged by this research.
A further point that would have been nice to develop is the environmental implications of slower growth in China. Fewer resources will be needed to give its people a decent life. That must be welcome too. The thing to look for in the years ahead will not be further economic projections but any evidence that the Chinese leadership is adjusting down its expectations about the country’s role in the world. At the moment, it is moving in the other direction, but at some stage, there will have to be a reset. The huge question is the nature and timing of that reset.
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