China's central bank is widely expected to partially roll over maturing medium-term policy loans on Monday, while keeping borrowing costs unchanged for the seventh month in a row, a Reuters survey showed.
Rising domestic inflationary pressure has further limited room for policy manoeuvre to support the economy slowly recovering from COVID-19 shocks, at a time that other major economies are raising interest rates aggressively.
Twenty-nine out of the survey participants, or 90.6%, said they predicted there would be a partial rollover, while the remaining three expected the central bank to fully extend the maturing loans. "Given the flush market liquidity, a rollover amount at or above 400 billion yuan shall be seen as supportive," said Frances Cheung, rates strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, noting MLF maturity is heavy this month.
"Along with risks of a rebound in structural inflation, the central bank is expected to guide market costs higher and close to the policy rates and could result in a partial MLF rollover in August," Ming said.
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