China plans to crush new covid outbreaks with tough measures

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China plans to crush new covid outbreaks with tough measures
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They may work, but the cost will be high

frightening outbreak of covid-19 lurks in Harbin, a north-eastern city known for Russian architecture and a winter festival featuring large castles hewn from river ice. Traced to a Chinese student who flew from America in March, the outbreak has pushed the city of 10m back into semi-lockdown, weeks after a first wave of the virus was defeated in Wuhan, far to the south.

The world is familiar by now with China’s approach to virus control, combining brute force with high-tech surveillance and contact tracing. The Harbin lockdown is revealing because it was triggered by such a small cluster. At the time of writing, the city has just 63 confirmed cases of covid-19, plus another 17 asymptomatic cases.

t as close to zero as possible, and will endure pain to achieve that. To date, the world shows little interest in debating the wisdom or folly of that strategy. One cause may be suspicion of China’s numbers. Western politicians call it naive to believe that China has suffered only 84,000 cases to date, and 4,600 deaths. This when Belgium, a country only a bit more populous than Harbin, has reported 7,200 covid deaths.

The Communist Party is a black box. But some incentives that guide its leaders are knowable. For one thing, maintaining order and keeping people safe is the foundation of the social contract between rulers and the masses. That compact wins public support for a fair amount of sacrifice. Should economic woes endure, the party will stoke nationalism, with even more propaganda reports about incompetence and chaos in the democratic West.

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