By 2100 43m-57m Chinese people could find themselves living below the high-tide line, with an additional 60m threatened by annual coastal floods, scientists project
could bring serious problems. This represents a greater threat to China than to most countries.
Development since Deng’s reforms has made things worse. Half of China’s coastal wetlands and mangrove forests—natural shields against floods—have been destroyed. Cities have pumped unsustainable amounts of groundwater out of the earth, and built heavy skyscrapers. The resultant subsidence has caused the land to sink towards the sea even faster than the sea rises in some cities. Parts of Shenzhen are falling by 74mm a year.Rising seas are already causing damage.
China’s government has rejected some international estimates of sea-level rise, like that of Climate Central. It has also, unhelpfully, warned environmentals away from studying its coasts, citing security concerns. In 2021 one group trying to monitor marine pollution was accused of collecting data for foreign spies.
Coastal land, though, is China’s most valuable. Officials would prefer to continue building on it. Giant construction projects are ongoing all along the coastline. In Shantou, a port city on the south coast known for its fierce typhoons, a 22,000-seat stadium was recently completed beside the sea. It is surrounded by construction sites which will become industrial parks and residential buildings.Officials are betting on sea walls to protect such assets. China has thousands of kilometres of them.
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