China’s central government does not seem to disentangle the merits of an innovative policy from the idiosyncrasies of the places that pilot it. This has national consequences
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskIn the scattered bases occupied by China’s communists before 1949, experimentation was unavoidable, points out Sebastian Heilmann in his book, “Red Swan: How Unorthodox Policymaking Facilitated China's Rise”. The communists lacked the manpower or administrative reach to impose uniform policies.
These trials are not mere formalities. The results can go either way. About 46% of experimental policies are never rolled out nationwide, according to Messrs Wang and Yang. An unsuccessful trial can nonetheless yield useful lessons for future reforms. Failure, as Mao once put it, is the mother of success: “a fall into the pit” can yield “a gain in your wit”.
This long and celebrated history notwithstanding, China is surprisingly bad at policy experiments. Its trials are not as clean as they could be, skewing the conclusions its leaders draw. One problem is their location. According to China’s planning agency, “sites should be fairly representative.” But contrary to this sound advice, 80% of experiments since the 1980s have taken place in localities that are richer than average, according to Messrs Wang and Yang. Another bias is fiscal.