The likelihood Britain and the European Union part ways without a deal has jumpe...
LONDON - The likelihood Britain and the European Union part ways without a deal has jumped in the past month, according to economists in a Reuters poll, as most candidates jockeying to take over as prime minister appear to have adopted a hard line stance.
Boris Johnson, a former foreign minister and the bookmakers’ favorite to take over, kicked off his official leadership campaign on Wednesday with a pledge to lead Britain out of the EU on Oct. 31 no matter what happens. The other compromise option was the second most likely outcome - Britain remaining a member of the European Economic Area, paying into the EU budget to maintain access to the EU’s single market.
But the economy is still unlikely to go into recession - the median chance of one over the next 12 months was 25% and it was 30% for in the next two years - and GDP will expand 0.3-0.4% per quarter through to the end of 2020, forecasts unchanged from last month suggested.
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