Ten Years After the Coup, Is the Central African Republic Facing Another Major Crisis? CrisisGroup: CAR
Ten years ago, a predominantly Muslim rebel coalition from the north east, Seleka, marched on CAR's capital Bangui, supported by thousands of Chadian and Sudanese mercenaries, without encountering any resistance. It overthrew President François Bozizé and launched a transition phase but failed to keep its fighters under control. Faced with the rebels' brutality, local populations formed self-defence militias, known as anti-balaka groups, that targeted Muslim communities.
The rebels' third attack bore close similarities to the second and occurred on 14 February in the town of Sikikedé, also in Vakaga. The CPC captured twenty soldiers from the national army and later posted a video of the hostages on social networks, sparking public outrage.
The use of IEDs and kidnappings is further isolating rural communities and reducing humanitarian access. First, the president's attempts at constitutional reform have accelerated the government's lurch toward authoritarianism. In the summer of 2022, the ruling party launched a series of legislative initiatives designed, among other things, to lift the constitutional limit of two presidential terms, which would clear the way for Touadéra to run for president again in 2025.
Second, the government may soon be unable to pay the salaries of its officials and national security forces. Foreign aid formerly provided more than 50 per cent of the state's budget. The decision by CAR's Western partners to suspend financial assistance following Russia's involvement in the country has emptied the state's coffers, forcing the administration to suspend all current payments since December 2022.
The war in Ukraine has also exacerbated concerns in the West about Wagner's operations in Africa. In January, the United States classified Wagner as a transnational criminal organisation, exposing the group and its supporters to financial sanctions. Following this announcement, Washington began discussions with President Touadéra aimed at offering him an alternative security plan and helping expel the Russian group from the country.
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