The sky is falling in Toronto after last night’s backbreaking loss as a heavy road favorite in Montreal. Now the sloppy\u002Dlooking Maple Leafs return home to take…
Over 6.5 bettors caught a break last night as the Leafs tied the game with under two minutes remaining. The latter portion of that game slowed down significantly at 2-2. It finished with 5.12 expected goals and just over 4.0 expected goals at even strength.
Last night’s game also closed at 7 in most places right before game time and we could see that again today with the 6.5 teetering on the 7. I’m always skeptical of hitting inflated Overs just because two teams are playing backup goalies.Article content Teams can play differently in front of No. 2s and that play is usually more conservative. Samsonov has a No. 1 job to take over after Murray left the door open last night with -1.48 goals saved above expected. He should have some help as Keefe will be preaching about turnovers after allowing too many odd-man rushes vs. the Habs last night. Being smart with the puck will be a major part of the Leafs’ game tonight.
With both clubs hitting the Over last night and starting backups, it could seem like an easy Over play here but I’d be happy with waiting closer to game time and getting the best price on the Under.With the back-to-back, we could also see a more balanced approach to ice time, meaning both bottom-six forwards could see more action.Article contentThe Capitals are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Toronto.
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