Canada’s largest banks have been projected to have lower than peak average earnings-per-share (EPS) in 2023 and one analyst is calling for expectations to fall even further.
‘While consensus estimates appear to be broadly aligned with banks’ guidance, we think there is a high probability that numbers will have to come down further,” Paul Holden, an analyst at
Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. The average consensus on Bay Street for Canadian banks' EPS this is year is 2.2 per cent. has a lower EPS growth projection of 1.5 per cent. While the Big Six have forecast an average year for credit provisions, Holden believes this is unlikely given the economic landscape. "We find that hard to swallow given the significant move in borrowing rates, inflationary pressures and an economic slowdown," he wrote. He noted that TD Bank and Scotiabank are the most sensitive to a downgrade in loan loss forecasts.
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