'Canada's economy ended 2022 with a thud:' What the economists are saying about GDP
“From a quarterly perspective, the larger January print adds upside to our Q1 call with a small increase looking more likely than the 0.5 per cent decline we’ve been expecting. But that’s not enough to alter our baseline expectation that weaker demand is yet to come. Household debt service ratio has been rising and will continue to increase into the end of 2024.
Looking forward, we are tracking an improvement in GDP for 2023 Q1. The GDP flash estimate for January is consistent with our view of a bounce back, led by an uptick in consumer spending following the most recent jobs surge. Although the Bank of Canada probably feels vindicated in its policy rate pause given today’s weak top-line print, it will still be closely watching the evolution of incoming data, which have surprised higher to start 2023.
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