Economic Insights: U.S. polls in 2016 did a bad job of predicting that year's election. Questions arose: What does it mean to have limited insight into the public mood? And what's behind the decreasing predictive power of polls?
If not, why not? And what does it mean to have limited insight into the mood and thoughts of the electorate? Six years later, none of these questions have a satisfactory answer.For those looking for evidence that 2016’s polling errors were not an aberration, 2020 delivered.
From aretrospective on the 2020 election: “Most pre-election polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not.”
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