With 2023’s Atlantic Hurricane Season officially underway, Dr. Stephanie Stevenson discusses her research and the future of hurricane forecasting.
officially underway, we recently interviewed Dr. Stevenson to learn more about her research and what it means for the future of hurricane tracking and forecasting.Ashowed promise for integrating lightning predictors for the short-term prediction of tropical cyclone intensity change. I started graduate school the same year and was motivated to pursue the topic since tropical cyclone intensity change is a key focus in the research community.
When evaluating the satellite data with hurricane aircraft reconnaissance data, lightning inside the radius of a storm’s maximum wind speeds was found to be beneficial for storm intensification. Additionally, the lightning’s evolution over time with respect to environmental factors, such as vertical wind shear, can give insight into how the storm’s structure—and its intensity—are changing.
Part of this is due to increased availability of lightning data over the oceans through GLM. We have also learned more effective ways to use the lightning data and we will continue to work towards quantitative applications that can help guide intensity forecasts.This study moved beyond using solely lightning density and incorporated variability in tropical cyclone structure, which resulted in finding a more consistent relationship with intensity change.
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