Can China end its ‘zero COVID’ policy?
Credit: Bloomberg via Gettyof quashing outbreaks through strict lockdowns, mass testing, quarantining and travel restrictions. The approach is coming at an increasing economic cost. But ending zero COVID also has significant downsides. Thanks to the policy, only a small portion of people in China have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Meanwhile immunity from vaccines is likely to have waned, and boosters have been a harder sell.
However, researchers say there are ways to minimize severe disease and deaths when shifting away from zero COVID. One priority should be to ramp up booster vaccination for older people, who are at higher risk of developing severe disease, says Xi Chen, an economist at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, who studies China’s public-health system.Most people in China have received an inactivated-virus vaccine made either by Sinovac or by the state-owned Sinopharm, both based in Beijing.
But so far, just 69% of people in that age category — and only 40% of those aged 80 or older — have received a third dose. “When there is such a strong push for zero COVID, vaccination takes a back seat,” says Cowling. This week, the government announced a plan to increase vaccination among older people, including shortening the time between the second and third doses from six to three months.
Another important strategy is to stockpile antiviral drugs, train more medical staff and increase the number of hospital beds, says Lu. Thestudy suggests that China could reduce deaths by 89% by treating everyone who has COVID-19 symptoms with theRight now in China, those infected with COVID-19, and their close contacts, typically have to quarantine in designated facilities.
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