Recent layoffs at such tech giants as Twitter, Google and Salesforce will obviously skew numbers in the technology sector, but that data is not yet reflected in the report.
The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for California offers two potential scenarios for California’s economy — a soft landing led by such factors as more construction and increased demand for defense goods, or a mild recession with elevated unemployment rates.“In the coming months, the Federal Reserve will reach that fork in the road between continued aggressive tightening and moderation,” the study said, “and it must decide which path to take.
About 170,000 payroll jobs in leisure and hospitality, and other services sectors have not returned, the report said, but rapid gains in logistics, technology and healthcare made up for that loss. Total employment growth rates in that scenario are expected to be 5.1% in 2022, 1.1% for 2023 and 1.2% for 2024. That would boost the state’s nonfarm workforce from 17.5 million this year to 18.2 million in 2024.
The soft-landing scenario predicts residential building permits in California will hit 121,400 this year before dipping to 119,400 in 2023 and climbing to 141,900 in 2024.In the recession scenario, California’s economy declines, but by less than the nation’s GDP. The state’s jobless rate is expected to average 4.3% this year, 4.4% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.
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