Five years ago, Cyril Ramaphosa’s ascent to power fuelled a euphoric rally in South Africa’s assets that coined a new word: Ramaphoria. On Thursday, a financial scandal threatened to end it all in a rout.
The nation’s currency posted its worst one-day loss since May while the government’s borrowing costs surged the most since 2015, as the president considers resigning over potential breaches of the constitution related to the theft of $580,000 stashed at a game farm he owns. Options traders bet on the wildest currency volatility in two years, and the cost to hedge against a sovereign default jumped the most in the same period.
“The market dreads political instability and often prefers to go with the devil they know than the devil they don’t,” said Cristian Maggio, the head of portfolio and ESG Strategy at TD Securities in London. “But Ramaphosa’s reform agenda has been underwhelming to say the least. Doubts will remain as to whether another candidate can kick-start that process, but we surely know that Ramaphosa is unlikely to deliver what is needed.
One-week implied volatility on the currency, based on options prices, soared 5 percentage points to more than 21%.
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