The baseline theory explains a lot about British politics
In her speech to the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on October 9th, Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, promised economic stability after “the wreckage of Tory misrule”. But she was curiously silent about the overall stance of fiscal policy, the lever that is most directly under the control of the chancellor.
In the 2015 election, the Conservatives committed themselves to £40bn , or 2% of GDP, of post-election spending reductions. When Labour failed to match this commitment, Mr Osborne argued that a Labour government would lead to more taxes and more borrowing. But soon after winning the 2015 election, the Tories put together another budget and softened their plans for public-spending cuts. The old baseline had served its purpose; a new one could be adopted.
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