A third term for Xi Jinping would risk a cold war or even a hot one. But his policies are hurting the PRC's economy. That will make it harder for China to throw its weight around – and helps fight climate change, says Hugodixon
Until recently, most analysts agreed it was only a matter of time before China’s economy, which was three-quarters the size of America’s in dollar terms last year, became the world’s largest. This forecast assumed the People’s Republic would continue to grow at the same astonishingly high rates as in the past.
China grew at an average rate of 10.3% a year in the first decade of this century. Growth fell to 7.7% in the second decade. While that’s still high, much of the recent expansion was in unproductive property and infrastructure investment., an economist who has been warning for years that China’s economic model is unsustainable, thinks the country’s trend growth rate is between 2% and 3% a year.
The country would then find it harder to build the dominant military force in Asia and fund investment overseas. It would also be a less attractive model for other countries to emulate – and there would be less pressure to accept its hegemony.
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