Breakingviews - The bubble in predicting the end of the world

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Breakingviews - The bubble in predicting the end of the world
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“Our earth is degenerate in these latter days: bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents; every man wants to write a book, and the end of the world is evidently approaching.” These words were inscribed on an Assyrian tablet nearly 5,000 years ago. Doom-mongering is once again back in fashion. There’s even a vogueish new term, “polycrisis”, to describe the multiple threats confronting economic prosperity and modern civilisation.

”, argues that ultralow interest rates in the years after the 2008 global financial crisis inflated a number of asset price bubbles and contributed to the buildup of leverage, widespread misallocation of capital and undue risk-taking. The ensuing systemic fragility makes it extraordinarily difficult for central bankers to return interest rates to historically normal levels without crashing the economic system.

”. Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, examines the conditions under which dominant countries have historically ceded primacy to upstart nations. He concludes the decline of a great power is characterised by an excessive accumulation of debt, a loss of competitiveness, rising inequality and internal discord. The eclipse of a global hegemon is often accompanied by external conflict as an aggressive upstart fights its way to the top.

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