'Black swan' pathogens from ancient permafrost may be getting ready to wake up

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'Black swan' pathogens from ancient permafrost may be getting ready to wake up
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Scientists simulated ancient viruses to see what impact they would have on the environment. While most had few consequences, 1% were capable of killing their hosts and disrupting ecosystems.

Ancient pathogens that have been locked away for hundreds of thousands of years are starting to emerge from permafrost as climate change takes hold — and around 1% of these could pose a substantial risk to modern ecosystems, a study has found.

Amid global warming, some of these microbes, including those with the potential to cause disease, are being released as the permafrost thaws. In 2016, an anthrax outbreak in Siberia killed thousands of reindeer and affected dozens of people, which scientists attributed to melting permafrost. These pathogens pose a potential risk because humans and other living organisms alive today have not been exposed to them for so long — meaning modern ecosystems may have few defenses against them.

In the simulation, digital microbes had to compete for resources, mimicking what happens in the real world. Some of the viruses infected and killed a fraction of the bacteria-like hosts, while other bacterial hosts developed immunity against the evolving pathogens.

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