Our betting analysts answer some of the most pressing questions surrounding Thursday night's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Bills have dropped two of their past three, including a Week 7 loss to the lowly Patriots. The Bucs come in losers of two straight, having lost to the Lions and Falcons. How are you betting this one?got hurt early in the Week 5 London game against the Jaguars. They ranked second in defensive DVOA in Weeks 1-4 but rank 28th in Weeks 5-7. But in the long term, it probably isn't going to be that bad for the Bills' defense.
The Bills play a lot of two TE sets, but with Knox out, their offense will change to more 3 WR set. Shakir will get more playing time, and was 4 for 4 with 35 yards last week. He should pick up where he left off. This is a play directly related to the absence of LB Matt Milano. Without him in the middle of the Bills' defense, White's assignment in the passing game is far easier.My tackles model projects 7.7 for White in this game, in part because of the spread. The Bills are heavily favored and so a likely outcome is for Buffalo to get out to a lead and start running the ball more. That creates more tackle opportunities for White, who records a higher tackle share on run plays than pass plays.
The Buccaneers rank 21st in rushing attempts per game and 29th in rushing yards per game. Tampa Bay now faces a Bills' defensive front that ranks sixth in run stop win rate. Two out of six games this season have seen White surpass 43.5 rushing yards. The Bills rank sixth in pass block win rate and Josh Allen has a 4% sack rate, the third-lowest in the NFL. Tryon-Shoyinka ranks 44th out of 56 edge rushers and my model gives this bet a 74% chance of going under.
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