Howard Marks reveals his philosophy behind excessive central bank stimulation, and why we're 'closer to the end' of the US economic recovery.
And, although Marks is highly opposed to forecasting, he articulates his opinions swiftly and clearly in terms of probabilities and best guesses. But the recent ubiquity of one phrase in particular seems to have Marks a bit apprehensive of the future: This time it's different.
"I don't think the US is about to emulate Australia's 28-years-and-counting recovery. That I will bet on." he wrote. "I wonder whether it's even desirable for it to have that goal," Marks said."Might efforts to postpone them create undue faith in the power and intentions of the Fed, and thus a return of moral hazard?"
His view comes at an extremely apropos time, as the market prices in a 100% probability of a rate cut in July, against the backdrop of historically low unemployment and GDP growing in the 3% region.
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