Bernie Sanders is the front-runner in a race that remains extremely fluid. Via FiveThirtyEight:
poll released on Friday, he was in third with 17 percent, down 3 points from Morning Consult’s pre-debate poll. It’s not necessarily clear that only Biden will benefit from a Bloomberg stumble, but it certainly holds good news for him at this point, especially if he holds onto his second place finish in Nevada.
Notably, the odds that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates fell by 1.5 points, too, meaning that is no longer the single most likely outcome in our forecast. That voting will end without anyone winning a pledged-delegate majority is still the second most likely outcome in our forecast after a Sanders win, but Sanders’s decisive victory in Nevada helped him put a little distance between himself and that more chaotic scenario. And remember, there are also plenty of eventualities in which Sanders wins the nomination with only aof pledged delegates — his chances of winning the most delegates , rose from 61 percent before Nevada to 69 percent after.
The model now also sees Sanders as more likely to win in the two most delegate-rich Super Tuesday states:
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