'Inadequate social distancing — whether as a result of official restrictions or noncompliance — is likely to blame,' Penn Wharton senior analyst John Ricco said.
new model from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania
“It's possible that this phenomenon reflects a recent ramp-up in testing rather than continued linear growth in cumulative infections,’’ Penn Wharton senior analyst John Ricco said of the U.S.’s inability to flatten the curve. “But as our analysis suggests, it's a real possibility that the virus’s remains above 1 in many states, which would mean that the virus will continue to spread indefinitely.
That was a major part of why death totals in the model skyrocketed, Murray said, adding that social distancing unquestionably works in curbing the virus’ spread. If they fully reopened right away, the GDP on June 30 would increase by 1.5% relative to not reopening, and job losses in May and June would essentially be wiped out. A partial reopening would result in a 1% GDP increase year over year and 14 million job losses in those two months, but would cost an additional 45,000 lives, for a June 30 total of 162,000.Dr.
Because of its size and diversity of states and cultures, Rutherford said it’s not fair to compare how the U.S. has done in responding to the pandemic to much smaller countries. The strict measures implemented in Italy or someplace like the semiautonomous region of Hong Kong, where the government went as far as requiring those on home quarantine to wear monitoring bracelets, would likely prompt intense backlash in the U.S.
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