A recession is not the “house view” inside Carlyle Group, and billionaire investor David Rubenstein says Russia and China may be more important than the Fed.
Gay Connecticut Supreme Court Justice Calls Out U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas on Same-Sex Marriage Ruling Repeal Idea
China as a risk factor may remain volatile until later this year and a decision by China's Communist Party to award a third term for President Xi Jinping. Once the politics are more clear, there should be greater clarity on Covid policy, as well as tech sector regulation which has unnerved investors. He expects a somewhat softer tone with tech companies than China has recently shown.
As the Russia-Ukraine war has led to spikes in energy prices and concerns about energy shortages in Europe, Rubenstein said a reevaluation of the energy transition is taking place."Everybody wants more climate-friendly energy, of course, but it's not easy to get there. What we've learned from the Russia-Ukraine war is that the world is still very heavily dependent on carbon energy, and right now, the world is scrambling to get more carbon energy.
Oil prices have already come down from around $140 to $108 per barrel, and Rubenstein thinks the trajectory for prices remains lower with U.S. supply increasing and other major players like Saudi Arabia likely to raise production. In Carlyle's deal market, prices have come down, he said, but there is still room for valuations to come down more, referring to EBIT multiples to buy companies that are still at"double-digits levels" — down from roughly 14 times to 11 to 12 times.The deal market is slower, but not dead. Debt remains readily available, the debt component of deals is much lower than it had been historically, and equity valuations are slightly lower if not as low as they will go yet.
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